Former governor of Lagos state, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has his eyes firmly fixed on the presidency in 2023. Nothing is likely to hinder him from taking that shot.
The Jagaban, as his admirers like to refer to him, has many factors going for him, including a national spread of supporters, campaign war chest, and an army of political foot soldiers. But there is a snag, the same snag that affected his Aso Villa dreams in 2015 when he wanted to be President Muhammadu Buhari’s running mate. Tinubu, a Muslim from the South West must choose a Christian northerner as running mate for the ticket to fly.
Buhari had in 2015 declined Tinubu’s overtures to be his Vice President because both of them are Muslims. Tinubu then recommended Yemi Osinbajo as the Vice President. Sources tell The PREMIER that the choice of who becomes Tinubu’s running mate had been the most problematic decision for the man who styles himself as the national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This is, especially because the running mate must have a national appeal, come from the north and be a Christian.
A Muslim-Muslim ticket had worked in the past, the most prominent was in 1993 when MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe flew the ticket of the Social Democratic Party in their race for Aso Rock, which they won but Ibrahim Babangida, the then head of state annulled. Buhari had, as a military dictator in 1984, ruled the country with Brigadier Tunde Idiagbon, his deputy, for 18 months before they were toppled in a bloodless coup. Both men are Muslims. But Nigeria has further polarised along religious lines after the June 12, 1993 election which MKO Abiola, a Yoruba Muslim won as President along Babagaba Kingibe, a northern Muslim as his Vice President.
Subsequent permutations have always factored the religious and regional sensitivities of the people. Dogara, our sources say, fits the profile of the kind of Vice President that could make a Tinubu’s presidency viable. Since he is from Bauchi State and a Christian, Tinubu camp believes that with Dogara on the ticket, Tinubu could be guaranteed a large chunk of the Christian northern votes. A Northern Christian has the slimmest chance of becoming a President in Nigeria due to political domination by their Muslim neigbours, and a bitter history of religious animosity.
But a Dogara as Vice President could change the ante. Tinubu’s camp also think that Dogara is generally acceptable among the northern power brokers, especially the traditional rulers and businessmen. This, they think, could ensure support of the Northern Muslims who ordinarily may have opposed the combination of Tinubu and Dogara. In 2015, Dogara’s emergence as Speaker got the blessings of the Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Abubakar, even when his rival to the office, Femi Gbajabiamila is a Muslim. During a Thanksgiving Service held in his honour at the Church of Christ in all Nations, COCIN, in Tafawa Balewa, Bauchi State, the speaker said the Sultan intervened in his election despite his being a Christian.
“This victory; what we celebrate here today won’t have been possible without God, the Sultanate and others across the country. For us who are Christian minorities in the North, we should acknowledge that this victory we are celebrating here today was made possible by the intervention of the Sultan and other others. We should know that there is new thinking in the North. “We owe it a duty to make sure we unite our own part of the country and other parts of the country.
My emergence as Speaker is as a result of the support of all major tribes of Nigeria, and all faiths in Nigeria,” A lawyer, Olusegun Bamgbose, who is also the National Coordinator of Concerned Advocates for Good Governance, CAGG, has also argued that Dogara was brought into APC by Tinubu. According to a statement which an online newspaper, Daily Post published, the senior lawyer said the defection of Dogara to the APC was part of the 2023 political arithmetic and permutations.
“Bola Tinubu is certainly not prepared to be caught panting, as things unfold. “Tinubu, as a master strategist possibly masterminded Dogara’s defection, to enable him to have a popular candidate, as his Vice, come 2023 Presidential elections. “His greatest challenge would have been securing a Northerner who is a Christian, as a vice. Someone who will be generally acceptable to the North, and also one whose political pedigree is intimidating.
“Dogara, being the immediate past Speaker of the House of Representatives, to him will be the candidate to look out for. “Tinubu possibly went out for him. PDP is getting weaker by the day. The surprising thing is that many PDP bigwigs have kept mute about Dogara’s defection because some of them may follow suit soon.
The PDP Board of Trustees (BoT) has also said that Dogara has joined the APC simply because he wants to be Vice President come 2023. Observers say while Tinubu and Dogara’s ticket looks promising, the challenge before the Jagaban would be to convince the APC to concede the ticket to the South, otherwise his dreams for Aso Rock will still remain a dream. This is especially because Buhari’s nephew and one of the most influential Nigerian whom the president listens to, Mamman Daura, is already campaigning against zoning of the APC ticket. In a nutshell, he may be making the case for the North to retain Aso Rock in 2023.
