|By Babatunji Wusu
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has endorsed the Federal Government’s more cautious fiscal projections in the newly released 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), describing it as a decisive shift toward “fiscal realism.”
In its policy brief signed by Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the organisation said the framework presented by the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, finally responds to years of revenue shortfalls, volatile oil earnings, and global uncertainties that previously weakened budget execution.
The CPPE noted that chronic revenue underperformance has long undermined budget credibility, particularly in the 2025 fiscal year, where unrealistic macroeconomic assumptions triggered implementation setbacks and eroded public trust.
It hailed the adoption of dual oil production parameters—2.06 million barrels per day as the technical target and 1.80 mbpd as the budget benchmark—but argued that even the benchmark remains slightly optimistic given ongoing theft, vandalism, and production constraints. The organisation recommended a more conservative benchmark of 1.6 mbpd.
Similarly, it faulted the 2026 oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, warning that it exceeds projections by the World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and EIA, which peg oil at $55–$60. Aligning the benchmark to $60, it said, would better stabilise revenue forecasts.
CPPE commended the N1,540/$ exchange rate projection for 2026 as realistic and reflective of expected foreign exchange pressures during the election cycle. While acknowledging that a weaker naira raises procurement costs, it said the adjustment strengthens revenue performance and supports credible planning.
The group further praised the downward revision of 2026 revenue projections to N34.33 trillion—a 16 percent cut from the previous year—calling it a firm embrace of fiscal prudence. However, it cautioned that allocating N15.91 trillion, representing 46 percent of projected revenue, to debt servicing exposes Nigeria to continued constraints in financing security, infrastructure, and social programmes.
CPPE criticised the late submission of the MTEF to the National Assembly, noting that the Fiscal Responsibility Act mandates the document’s presentation at least four months before the new fiscal year. Such delays, it warned, limit legislative scrutiny and weaken evidence-based budget debates.
The policy group urged lawmakers to avoid inflating expenditure and to reject unrealistic revenue assumptions during deliberations, insisting that both the Executive and Legislature must commit to credible projections to rebuild public trust in the budgeting system.
While describing the 2026–2028 MTEF as a positive recalibration, CPPE stressed the need for deeper fiscal reforms, transparent spending, and sustained discipline to secure long-term stability.
