NESG Forecasts 15.5% Inflation for Nigeria in 2026

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) expects inflation to remain high through the rest of 2026, with the rate averaging 15.5 per cent in the second half and across the full year.

The inflation forecast reflects continued pressure from insecurity in major farming areas, climate-related disruptions such as flooding, and high transport costs linked to logistics challenges.

The group also warned that election spending, increased festive-season demand and relatively high energy costs could create temporary cost pressures during H2 2026. However, exchange-rate stability, the delayed impact of tight monetary policy and favourable base effects could help ease some of these pressures.

“Howevaer, these pressures could be partly offset by continued exchange rate stability, the lagged effects of tight monetary policy, and favourable base effects” it noted.

In its report, Turning Potential into Progress, the NESG also projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026, supported by stronger activity across the oil, manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.

“Economic growth is expected to strengthen to 4.5 percent in the second half of 2026, bringing full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to approximately 4.2 percent”.

The NESG expects oil output to improve as better security conditions and upstream reforms support domestic production. Rising refining activity could also boost industrial output, reduce reliance on imported petroleum products and strengthen the country’s external position.

Meanwhile, manufacturing growth could benefit from lower inflation, exchange-rate stability and improved foreign exchange liquidity, which should ease production challenges and boost business confidence.

Could Nigeria’s projected economic growth help offset the pressure from elevated inflation?