Crude Oil Price Decline May Trigger Reduction in Petrol Costs Across Nigeria

A decrease in global crude oil prices could lead to a corresponding drop in petrol prices across Nigeria.

The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) disclosed over the weekend that the estimated import parity price of petrol at depots had dropped to ₦922.65 per litre, reflecting a decrease of ₦21 from the ₦943.75 per litre recorded last Thursday.

MEMAN’s data showed Brent crude benchmarked at $78.29 per barrel, slightly lower than the previous day’s $78.88, with an exchange rate of ₦1,550 per dollar. Further checks Monday revealed that Brent crude had dipped to $78.01 per barrel as of 8:11 am, down from over $81 just a week ago.

This trend comes shortly after Dangote Refinery implemented a 6.17% hike in its ex-depot price, raising it to ₦950 per litre from ₦899.50. The adjustment subsequently pushed retail petrol prices at its affiliated stations to ₦970 per litre.

Industry experts, speaking anonymously, suggested that the ongoing decline in crude prices, coinciding with shifts in U.S. energy policies under Donald Trump’s presidency, could pressure local petrol prices downward.

“If the global price of crude continues on this downward trajectory, local petrol prices will likely reflect this change. Marketers and refineries will adjust their prices just as they did when crude prices peaked above $81 per barrel,” a source explained.

The CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise also remarked that increased crude supply might lead to sustained lower prices globally, translating into reduced local petrol costs. This could prompt Dangote Refinery, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), and other marketers to reduce their rates to remain competitive in the deregulated oil market.

Currently, Nigerians pay between ₦965 and ₦1,150 per litre of petrol nationwide, a figure that may decline if crude prices persist at lower levels.