Babatunji Wusu –
- The Dangote Refinery has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products, particularly from Europe.
- The refinery’s gasoline production and exports are reshaping global supply patterns, especially affecting the European market.
- Nigeria’s ongoing energy challenges have been partly alleviated by the refinery’s operations, reducing the need for fuel imports.
- The Dangote Refinery, with an initial capacity of 350,000 barrels per day, is expected to reach 650,000 barrels per day by 2025, contributing significantly to local fuel availability and potentially easing shortages.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has acknowledged the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on global fuel markets, particularly noting how its operations have reduced Nigeria’s dependency on imported refined petroleum products, especially from Europe. According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report published on January 15, 2025, the refinery’s gasoline production and subsequent exports to international markets are reshaping gasoline supply dynamics, particularly in Europe.
As the Dangote Refinery continues its ramp-up efforts, its gasoline exports are expected to put further pressure on the European gasoline market, as production in Nigeria increases. OPEC anticipates that this surge in gasoline output will necessitate adjustments in global distribution, freeing up volumes in international markets that will likely seek new destinations.
Historically, Nigeria—Africa’s largest oil producer—has struggled with energy challenges, with its state-owned refineries largely inactive. This has led to a heavy reliance on imported refined products, a situation exacerbated by rising fuel prices following the removal of subsidies in May 2023. Prices surged from ₦200/litre to around ₦1000/litre, further straining the country’s economy.
The $20 billion Dangote Refinery, owned by Aliko Dangote, began operations in December 2023, initially producing 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of refined products. By the end of 2025, the refinery is expected to reach full capacity of 650,000 bpd, supplying diesel, petrol, and aviation fuel to local markets. This development marks a pivotal moment for Nigeria’s energy sector, potentially easing fuel shortages and reducing the country’s dependency on fuel imports.
