Nigeria Misses Oil Revenue Target by N7.88tn

By Babatunji Wusu

Nigeria recorded a major decline in oil revenue performance during the third quarter of 2025, as earnings from crude oil fell far below government expectations.

According to the 2025 Q3 Budget Implementation Report released by the Budget Office of the Federation (BoF), the country generated N4.87 trillion in gross oil revenue during the quarter. The figure represented a massive shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8 per cent, below the projected quarterly target.

The report also revealed that the federal government posted a fiscal deficit of N328.57 billion during the same period. It explained that weak performance in both oil and non-oil revenue continued to affect government finances.

“Revenue shortfalls persisted in both oil and non-oil receipts. Total FG revenue stood at N7.7 trillion and expenditure reached N8.03 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of N328.57 billion,” the report stated.

The poor oil revenue performance was linked to falling crude oil prices and lower production levels. During the quarter, crude oil sold at an average price of $68.50 per barrel, below both the previous quarter’s average and the 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel.

Nigeria also recorded an average daily oil production of 1.64 million barrels per day, lower than the government’s benchmark target of 2.12 million barrels per day.

Despite the decline in oil earnings, the report showed that non-oil revenue performed slightly better. Gross non-oil revenue reached N6.52 trillion, exceeding projections by N468.58 billion.

The report further highlighted concerns over Nigeria’s growing debt burden. Debt servicing consumed N3.41 trillion during the quarter, exceeding the N2.66 trillion spent on non-debt recurrent expenditure.

Do you think Nigeria can reduce its dependence on oil revenue in the coming years?