By Babatunji Wusu
A paradox is emerging in Nigeria’s economic recovery: while the cost of living is rising more slowly, the number of people falling into poverty is increasing. According to the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update (April 2026), the national poverty rate climbed to 63 percent in 2025, leaving approximately 140 million Nigerians living below the poverty line. This represents a steady ascent from 56 percent in 2023 and 61 percent in 2024.
The report, titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today,” highlights a significant disconnect between macroeconomic stability and household welfare. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that headline inflation plummeted from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 15.15 percent by December 2025. Food inflation saw an even more dramatic drop, falling from nearly 40 percent to 10.84 percent in the same period. However, the World Bank warns that these improvements have not yet translated into better lives for the average citizen.
The persistence of poverty is attributed to several critical factors:
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Stagnant Incomes: Household earnings have not grown fast enough to offset the cumulative damage caused by previous years of hyper-inflation.
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Agricultural Lag: While the services and industrial sectors have expanded, agriculture—the primary employer of Nigeria’s poor—has struggled with slow growth and security challenges.
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Global Shocks: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have kept energy, transport, and fertilizer costs elevated, disproportionately affecting low-income families.
Looking ahead, the World Bank offers a “cautiously optimistic” projection. It predicts that poverty may begin a gradual decline starting in 2026, potentially reaching 59 percent by 2028, provided that inflation continues to ease and investment in human capital increases. However, the lender cautioned that without significant job creation and improvements in agricultural productivity, the pace of poverty reduction will remain painfully slow.
As the nation navigates these reforms, the focus shifts to whether the current disinflation trend can eventually be felt in the pockets of the millions of Nigerians currently struggling to make ends meet.
Do you think the government should reintroduce targeted food subsidies to bridge the gap while waiting for the long-term effects of economic reforms to reach the poor?
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